precautionary principle

Interpreting Models of Coronavirus Spread

Models are crucial to making policy decisions during the epidemic, but you have to know how to use them.

This post works through an exercise in how to use and interpret models of disease spread.   Here are the takeaways for policy analysis: You need to know about a model’s sensitivity.  Particularly in settings where the specific numbers really matter, such as forecasting how many hospital beds will be needed, it’s important to take into …