Two Cheers for Tariffs
Stupid climate mitigation is better than none.
So Donald Trump has imposed massive tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and then paused them, and then imposed them again, and then paused them — as always, he is the master of political coitus interruptus. But Canada has not backed off and is maintaining its current retaliatory tariffs: Trump has already promised more and is still moving ahead with steel and aluminum tariffs. Already the markets are beginning to panic,
So, for those who care about the planet, the response should be…. hope??!!
Yes. Those who care about climate should welcome these tariffs, for two major reasons:
First, take a look at the graph of US carbon emissions. They have been declining since 2006, but not fast enough. In only one year did they really drop precipitously: 2020, when COVID hit and the economy collapsed. In other words, one of the quickest and most effective ways to get emissions down is through a recession.
And the sorts of tariffs Trump is applying have a very good chance to do that, according to Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics, the economy is already “gagging” on the Trump’s economic chaos. Tariffs will help it choke, as did the Smoot-Hawley Tariff of 1930.
Now, causing a recession is about the least efficient and most harmful way to reduce emissions. I get that. Under Trump, however, that is the only climate policy measure available with any chance at emissions reduction. So, we should welcome it.
To the extent that they tank the economy, tariffs are very bad news for Republicans, who right now have a razor-thin margin in the House. Whatever else one might say about the current partisan divide, Democrats are much better on climate than Republicans. If they retake the House – or even retake the Senate (which will be considerably harder), they will use this authority not only to investigate and harass anti-climate policy in the administration, but also will insist on pro-climate appropriations.
These are very bad times. But it makes sense to look for silver linings where we can get them.
So, with regard to tariffs, in the words of the great climate scientist Lt. Harry Callahan, Go Ahead: Make My Day.
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3 Replies to “Two Cheers for Tariffs”
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About Jonathan
Jonathan Zasloff teaches Torts, Land Use, Environmental Law, Comparative Urban Planning Law, Legal History, and Public Policy Clinic – Land Use, the Environment and Loc…
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Jonathan, you’ve made a good try, but the tariffs and multiple trade wars are bad for both the economy and climate. Individuals, business firms, and local governments alike need a dependably long and reasonably consistent policy horizon, target set, and legal framework.
Dan
Dan, I don’t disagree in the slightest. But over the next four years, we won’t get any of that. We will get a policy that seeks to destroy all mitigation and adaptation measures as well as vaporizing the administrative capacity to handle it in the future. *Under these circumstances,* what is the best that the planet can hope for? An economic slowdown that buys time. Like the subhead says: stupid climate mitigation is better than none. That’s the choice. It’s like elections: it’s a binary choice.
We are in a horrendous place, as I also am cataloging at cprclimate.org/archive/blog/, so, we need to be increasingly creative — among other things.
But an economic slow-down short of a recession that is unlinked to a pandemic mostly may slow activity at the lower end of the economic spectrum and little impair air travel, purchase of ICE autos, fossil fuel production, importation of goods from outside North America, etc, that is, activities associated with higher emissions. I think.