Japan Nuclear Situation Now May Be “Stable,” Not “Critical.”
There is now some reason to think that the situation in Japan has stabilized. According to Bloomberg, Japan’s efforts to cool reactors at the crippled Fukushima Dai-Ichi plant had some success, with reports two of the six reactors are under control and a second electric cable has been connected to the station. Tokyo Electric Power Co., the operator, declared Units 5 and 6 safe after cooling water pumped into them reduced temperatures, the Associated Press reported. ...
CONTINUE READINGBill O’Reilly Adopts the Precautionary Principle
Ann Coulter has written a column arguing that low doses of regulation are actually good for you. Through the so-called hormesis effect, she says, the low doses stimulate the body's protective mechanisms and actually produce health benefits. She was interviewed by Bill O'Reilly about this. As Huffington reports: She repeated this assertion to a skeptical Bill O'Reilly, who told her that, even if there was scientific discussion going on about the effects of radiation, ...
CONTINUE READINGMultiple Failures Exposed Diablo Canyon to Higher Risk
It is a coincidence that the Union of Concerned Scientists has released a new report on nuclear power plant safety while the Japanese nuclear crisis continues to unfold. Yet, the heightened awareness that many people now have of the importance of nuclear plant cooling systems may put us in a better position to understand the significance of the UCS findings. The report highlights 14 “near misses” at U.S. nuclear plants in 2010, including one at California’s Diab...
CONTINUE READINGJapan Update
Not good, on a number of fronts: The official death count is now past 7000, as reported by CNN. Another ten thousand are still missing. The NY Times reports that the Japanese government has finally raised the level of the event to 5, the same level as Three Mile Island. Here's a really scary statement from the same Times story: "Tokyo Electric Power Company, which operates the plant, said earlier this week that there was a possibility of 'recriticality,' in which fi...
CONTINUE READINGPoliticians Have Different Incentives Than Government Bureaucrats About Truth-Telling in a Catastrophe
Jonathan argues, essentially, that governments don't lie, people do, because the incentive structure for the person responsible for the catastrophe favors taking the risk that the better outcome will occur even if it's unlikely. This is especially true, in Jonathan's view, because if the terrible outcome occurs, the person in charge will be ousted and so lacks the long term incentive to act in the government's long term interest. I disagree. First, Jonathan's acco...
CONTINUE READINGEnvironmental Cover-ups and the Bureaucracy
Ann wants to know, "why do governments engage in obfuscation in the case of a major environmental crisis?" The assumption here is that the public is going to find out eventually, so why cover it up now and make it worse? Well, here's a theory. Note that "governments" don't do anything -- people do. "Government" is something of a reification; the only potential actors are, of course, people. And that changes the incentives somewhat. If I'm the person in charge o...
CONTINUE READINGWill the West Coast get hit with Japanese nuclear fallout?
No, says the South Coast Air Quality Management District. For reasons unknown to me, I'm on their e-mail list, and this just came through: You have probably heard news reports about harmful radiation escaping from damaged nuclear power plants in Japan following the recent tsunami. Some have even voiced concern that this radiation could travel across the ocean and impact California. There is no increased risk of harmful levels of radiation exposure in the United St...
CONTINUE READINGWhy Do Governments Cover Up the Truth About Environmental Disasters?
Until today, I had been impressed by what I took to be the Japanese government's candor about the unfolding nuclear crisis. Some of the statements from officials seemed surprisingly frank, with admissions from the Prime Minister on Monday, for example, that a "very high risk" of "further leakage" of radiation was possible. Tokyo Electric Power officials have also struck me as being quite forthcoming, admitting that the odds of further hydrogen explosions were likel...
CONTINUE READINGWhy Do People Care So Much About Nuclear Accidents?
Well, for obvious reasons. But Ann, citing Will Saletan, raises a good question: why are people so much more concerned about nuclear accidents than, say oil spills or other environmental disasters? If we accept Saletan's figures of "direct fatalities" being 18 times more dangerous for oil production per energy unit (and there are reasons not to - see below), then one wonders why we don't worry more about oil spills. To me, the most obvious answer concerns risk avo...
CONTINUE READINGThe Worst Supreme Court Environmental Decision?
Recently appearing in my in-box is Pepperdine Law School's latest law porn, a glossy brochure about its upcoming symposium, "Supreme Mistakes: Exploring the Most Maligned Decisions in Supreme Court History." Dan will speak, but unless he decides to talk about it, environmental law doesn't figure to get on the agenda: none of the other speakers has particular environmental expertise. That seems to make sense: even the worst environmental decision can't compare to�...
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