2026 congressional elections

Election 2026: A Political Earthquake

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How close were the forecasters? And what happens next?

Now that the votes are actually in, it’s time to take stock.  There are still races that are too close to call. Overall, however, the Tuesday vote was a remarkable Democratic win .  The effect will be to hinder Trump’s anti-environmental campaign while expanding state support for clean energy. The vote counting for 2026 is not yet over, but the 2028 presidential campaign has now begun.

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Election 2026: The Final Sprint [PLUS Breaking News]

A round pin with red stars and stripes as well as white stars over a blue background reads "ELECTION 2026"

Democrats are likely to win House control, but control of the Senate is iffier.

In the last month, Trump has been on the campaign trail, and Republicans have spent hundreds of millions on ads. Elon Musk alone has set a record for campaign spending. Nevertheless,   unless the experts are haywire, Democrats will control the House, and their odds in the Senate are better than 50/50. 

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Why the Midterms Matter for Energy & Environment

A round pin with red stars and stripes as well as white stars over a blue background reads "ELECTION 2026"

Trump could still pursue his fossil fuel dominance agenda – but not as easily. 

Trump still can take many administrative actions regardless of who controls Congress.  But the election still matters for the future of the U.S. energy system and the planet.  A President who has the support of a united Congress can do a lot more than a President who must contend with serious congressional opposition. Here’s why it matters.

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Who Will Control the Next Congress?

An image of the U.S. Capitol Building in the evening.

The election could be very close — or things could break hard for one party.

As we get closer to the election, there are no doubt surprises ahead.  Still, we can get a sense of where things are heading based on current information.  Who controls Congress will impact a lot of issues, including environment and energy. Even with a President as wilfull as Trump, Congress has significant levers to pull.  I’ll take a look at the key races. At present things look very close.

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Four Tight House Races in California

A round pin with red stars and stripes as well as white stars over a blue background reads "ELECTION 2026"

None of these is a true toss-up, but they’re still very much in contention.

I can only see four California congressional districts where Republicans seems to have any reasonable chance (apart from those where Republicans have been packed as part of the gerrymander).  They all lean at least slightly Democratic, but the Democrats are far from having these races locked down. I’ll start with the race that seems most in question and move to others that are tougher challenges for Republicans.

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