2026 congressional elections

Who Will Control the Next Congress?

An image of the U.S. Capitol Building in the evening.

The election could be very close — or things could break hard for one party.

As we get closer to the election, there are no doubt surprises ahead.  Still, we can get a sense of where things are heading based on current information.  Who controls Congress will impact a lot of issues, including environment and energy. Even with a President as wilfull as Trump, Congress has significant levers to pull.  I’ll take a look at the key races. At present things look very close.

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Four Tight House Races in California

A round pin with red stars and stripes as well as white stars over a blue background reads "ELECTION 2026"

None of these is a true toss-up, but they’re still very much in contention.

I can only see four California congressional districts where Republicans seems to have any reasonable chance (apart from those where Republicans have been packed as part of the gerrymander).  They all lean at least slightly Democratic, but the Democrats are far from having these races locked down. I’ll start with the race that seems most in question and move to others that are tougher challenges for Republicans.

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