climate models
Model Uncertainty in Politics and Climate Policy
The polls could be systematically off, not just due to random error. That’s a worry with climate models as well.
Yes, your favored candidate could sweep the swing states, and yes, climate change could be more moderate than we now expect. But that shouldn’t give you much comfort on either issue, since the errors could equally be in the opposite directions.
Obviously, we’d like to improve our models, but that’s not always easy. In the meantime, the smart thing is to plan on the basis of the best models we have but avoid overconfidence about our predictions.
CONTINUE READINGUsing and Abusing Models: Lessons from COVID-19
We’ve seen some great examples of how NOT to deal with models.
Models have figured heavily in government responses to the coronavirus. This has given us the opportunity for a real-time lesson in the uses of models. In the process, we’ve learned some important lessons in how to best make use of models — and equally importantly, in how not to use them. That’s directly relevant to …
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CONTINUE READINGHow Hot Will Things Get?
Identifying a realistic worst case scenario is complicated.
How hot will the world be in 2100? The answer partly depends on how much carbon we dump in the atmosphere between now and then. It also depends on how sensitive the climate system is to those emissions. Scientists have used 4.5 °C as the high end of the likely possibilities. That estimate derives from …
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CONTINUE READINGWhither the Social Cost of Carbon?
Trump rescinded the Obama Administration’s estimate. Now what?
Republicans vehemently attacked the Obama Administration’s estimate of the social cost of carbon. Trump withdrew that estimate and directed individual federal agencies to do their own estimates. The agencies will now be faced with a number of problems, and it’s not clear that they are well positioned to deal with them. They might prefer to …
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CONTINUE READINGClimate Fatigue
You might be tired of climate change. But climate change isn’t tired of you.
I gather that people are tired of hearing about climate change. I’m tired of hearing about climate change, too. Sadly, Nature just doesn’t care that much about entertaining us. It’s going to be climate change this year, climate change next year, climate change the year after that . . . But don’t worry, it won’t …
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CONTINUE READINGHuman Fingerprints on Australia’s Record Heatwave
Australia — or at least Australia’s current government — downplays the danger of climate change. But, as a famous physicist once said, “reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled.” Last summer in Australia (corresponding to the winter months up here) broke many, many records. it was the hottest summer on record, …
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CONTINUE READINGThe Climate Gamble
Paul Krugman has a review of a new book by William Nordhaus about climate policy. By way of preface, I should say that Nordhaus is not particularly popular with environmentalists, who have generally considered him as too conservative in his policy recommendations. Nordhaus does, however, more or less define the mainstream view — he’s very …
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CONTINUE READINGHeads in the Snow
This isn’t news to any of our readers, but as a massive winter storm descends on the East Coast, let us be clear about one thing: The existence of a terrible, extreme snowstorm, far from belying the existence of “global warming”/climate change, actually confirms it. According to every model and every prediction of the phenomenon, climate change will …
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CONTINUE READINGClimate Change May Be More Severe Than Previously Expected
The Washington Post reports on a new study with grim implications about climate change. The study suggests that temperature increases by the end of the century will be at the upper end of predictions — 8°F. (Keep in mind that this is the global average — the change will be lower over the oceans but …
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CONTINUE READINGComparing Climate Models with Reality
Despite some year-to-year variation, the models are doing very well in predicting the overall global temperature trends.
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