Climate Politics
Election 2026: The Final Sprint [PLUS Breaking News]
Democrats are likely to win House control, but control of the Senate is iffier.
In the last month, Trump has been on the campaign trail, and Republicans have spent hundreds of millions on ads. Elon Musk alone has set a record for campaign spending. Nevertheless, unless the experts are haywire, Democrats will control the House, and their odds in the Senate are better than 50/50.
Climate Science Under Attack, in the Name of Global Equity
Equity for whom: The fossil fuel producers or the most vulnerable?
In the name of global equity, a coalition of carbon producers and high emitters is trying to delay the next report of the IPCC, the UN body in charge of synthesizing the world’s climate research. The report on the physical science of climate change is due in 2028, but China, India, Saudi Arabia, Kenya, and Russia want to stall into the next year. All these countries are major producers of coal, oil, or gas
CONTINUE READINGBlue Leaders in Red States
What can we expect if Dems flip the governorships in red states?
Right now, the Democrats have 50/50 odds in Georgia and Ohio, and maybe better than 50/50 in Alaska and Iowa. Governors are only one branch of state government, which obviously limits their sway. Still, like Presidents, they have some real maneuvering room. To get some sense of the possibilities, I took a look at five states with Republican legislatures and Democratic governors.
CONTINUE READINGWho Will Control the Next Congress?
The election could be very close — or things could break hard for one party.
As we get closer to the election, there are no doubt surprises ahead. Still, we can get a sense of where things are heading based on current information. Who controls Congress will impact a lot of issues, including environment and energy. Even with a President as wilfull as Trump, Congress has significant levers to pull. I’ll take a look at the key races. At present things look very close.
CONTINUE READINGWhat Explains Trump’s Energy Policy?
There’s no plausible economic explanation. It’s all about politics.
Trump’s energy policy rests on promotion of U.S. fossil fuel production and use. The instruments include orders forcing coal-fired generators to keep operating, relaxed air pollution standards for power plants, and repeal of as many energy efficiency standards as possible. Trump’s overall economic policy centers on mercantilism, the belief that countries get rich by exporting more than they import. That fits pieces of his energy policy but not others. There’s also some rhetoric about free choice by consumers, but Trump clearly is not a believer in free markets as a matter of principle.
CONTINUE READINGFour Tight House Races in California
None of these is a true toss-up, but they’re still very much in contention.
I can only see four California congressional districts where Republicans seems to have any reasonable chance (apart from those where Republicans have been packed as part of the gerrymander). They all lean at least slightly Democratic, but the Democrats are far from having these races locked down. I’ll start with the race that seems most in question and move to others that are tougher challenges for Republicans.
CONTINUE READINGYou May Have Forgotten About Climate Change. But It Hasn’t Forgotten About You
Denial is a great coping mechanism. Until reality turns around and bites you.
Climate change is, apparently, passé. Democratic politicians are avoiding the topic and dialing back ambitious plans to reduce emissions. The President apparently doesn’t think it exists, and the government’s official position is that its effects are too uncertain to worry about. Denial isn’t the world’s best coping mechanism, but it works, at least temporarily. The problem is that, while sometimes that lump you were worried about does go away, sometimes it keep growing and getting harder to treat. In the end, reality doesn’t much care whether you believe in it.
CONTINUE READINGElection 2026: Three Months to Go
Gerrymandering has given House Republicans a boost, and the Senate leans toward the GOP, but it still promises to be a real horse race.
Given partisan polarization on climate change and other environmental issues, the composition of Congress makes a big impact. We’re three months from election day. This post scopes out what things look like now. Obviously, things will change between now and the election. It’s worth reflecting, however, on how it would impact policy if current trends …
Continue reading “Election 2026: Three Months to Go”
CONTINUE READINGThe GCF Task Force Expands at 16th Annual Meeting
Photo by Government of Caquetá, Colombia.
The Governors’ Climate and Forests Task Force has grown from 45 to 54 member jurisdictions to cover even more of the world’s tropical forests.
The world’s largest subnational network dedicated to protecting forests, reducing emissions, and enhancing livelihoods across the tropics just got a lot bigger. Following a vote at our 16th Annual Meeting in Caquetá, Colombia from May 18 – 22, 2026, the Governors’ Climate and Forests Task Force (GCF Task Force) grew from 45 to 54 member …
Continue reading “The GCF Task Force Expands at 16th Annual Meeting”
CONTINUE READINGThe 2026 Election: Six Months to Go
Here’s what things look like now, but a lot could change.
Six months is a long time in politics, especially in the Trump era. What we can say at this point is that, compared with last November, the landscape has shifted toward the Democrats. They would now be favored to win the House, although that’s not a certainty. Republicans still clearly have edge in winning the Senate, but it’s a smaller edge than it was six months ago. Control of the House would allow Democrats to block further anti-environmental legislation, open investigations into Trump’s rollbacks, and potentially bargain for some pro-environmental provisions. Control of the Senate, while less likely, would also allow them to block appointments of extremist anti-environmentalist judges and officials.
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