Politics
Model Uncertainty in Politics and Climate Policy
The polls could be systematically off, not just due to random error. That’s a worry with climate models as well.
Yes, your favored candidate could sweep the swing states, and yes, climate change could be more moderate than we now expect. But that shouldn’t give you much comfort on either issue, since the errors could equally be in the opposite directions.
Obviously, we’d like to improve our models, but that’s not always easy. In the meantime, the smart thing is to plan on the basis of the best models we have but avoid overconfidence about our predictions.
CONTINUE READINGRanking the Candidates’ Focus on Energy & Climate
Some campaign websites mention these issues only in passing. Others went into more detail.
I thought it would be helpful to provide some kind of objective measure of how much various candidates focus on energy and climate. I based this on how extensively they discuss these issues on their websites. By this ranking, Biden came in first — surprisingly, ahead of progressives Jill Stein and Cornel West. Also surprisingly, …
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CONTINUE READINGRFK Jr. and Climate Change Conspiracy Theories
Voters who care about the climate should know the longtime environmental lawyer turned long-shot presidential candidate has turned away from environmentalism.
When an old acquaintance of mine recently shared a series of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. videos on Instagram, I couldn’t resist asking him what was appealing about the long-shot presidential candidate. He said that RFK Jr. would end corporate influence, including when it comes to industries that pollute the environment. RFK, he said, has done …
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CONTINUE READINGDefault and the Environment
What are the environmental impacts of Uncle Sam’s failure to pay his debts on time?
A journalist asked me how a default might impact environmental law. As I thought about it, I realized that the answers were, “In one way, very little,” and “In another way, potentially a disaster.” The effects might not amount to much. Or we could be talking about multigenerational climate impacts. There’s a lot of uncertainty …
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CONTINUE READINGThe Inflation Reduction Act and the Sequencing of Climate Policy
Why subsidies for clean energy generally are preconditions for other climate policies
The Inflation Reduction Act would be, if enacted, the biggest piece of climate legislation that the U.S. Congress has ever passed. As such, it’s gotten a fair amount of coverage attempting to put it into context for the broader scope of climate policy in the U.S. and globally – in particular, this article in Slate …
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CONTINUE READINGDesigning Policy to Advance Direct Air Capture of Carbon Dioxide
Direct air capture and sequestration of carbon dioxide will be central to climate policy this century, but how can we advance it through policy?
It is becoming increasingly likely that if the world is to avoid warming beyond 1.5 or 2 degrees Celsius that we will have to actively remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, rather only rapidly decarbonizing global economies. Without carbon dioxide removal, the rate of decarbonization that would be required to meet a 1.5 or 2 …
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CONTINUE READINGIf Liberals Were the Ones Who Favored Fossil Fuels. . .
Here’s what the conservative response might look like.
Conservatives often come to the defense of fossil fuels and disdain renewable energy. Is that really consistent with their principles? Let’s imagine what conservatives might say if the table were turned, Suppose liberals proposed government support for fossil fuels. The conservative response might look something like this: Another Liberal Boondoggle Now they want to prop …
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CONTINUE READINGConservatives versus Lockdowns
Conservatives versus Lockdowns
Spurred on by conservative groups, protesters are demanding that their states go back to business as usual. This sentiment isn’t limited to the kinds of hotheads who insist on congregating in public during an epidemic, or even to conservatives like Betsy DeVos who help to fund these groups and promote their protests. It also includes …
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CONTINUE READINGIs Trump’s California Climate Tantrum Bad Politics?
Here’s hoping so
Apparently it hasn’t been enough for the Trump Administration to roll back federal climate pollution standards for cars and power plants, announce its intent to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, promote coal usage even in the face of contrary market forces, and embrace expanded oil and gas drilling on public lands. As my colleague Ann …
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CONTINUE READINGThe states are stepping up on climate change
Will it be enough?
In just the last week, two economically and politically important states, New York and Virginia, took major steps toward reducing their contributions to climate change. On Tuesday, Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe (D) signed an executive order directing the state’s Department of Environmental Quality to develop and propose a regulation to the State Air Pollution Control Board “to …
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