scenario planning


We live in an uncertain world. Scenario planning can help.

When Shell Oil produced a sophisticated scenario of the path to a carbon neutral world in 2070, a lot people took notice. Shell concluded that the “relevant transformations in the energy and natural systems require concurrent climate policy action and the deployment of disruptive new technologies at mass scale within government policy environments that strongly …


Surviving on a Changing Planet

[youtube=] As this video explains, the Arctic is entering a new state, quite different from the Arctic regime that we have long known.  Over a somewhat longer time frame, much the same is happening with the climate and ecology of the world as a whole. It’s a bit like a science fiction cliché: explorers leave …


Future Energy Scenarios

In a recent post, I discussed projections of future oil prices.  There are big uncertainties, which obviously pose challenges for major oil companies among others.  The approach that Shell takes to such uncertainties is instructive.  Shell has a long history of using scenarios as a planning tool.  An important recent example is its analysis of …