Disasters
After the Peak, the Worst Could Still Be Yet to Come
Don’t break out the champagne when infections peak. Most deaths could happen afterwards.
There are some indications that we may be getting closer to the peak of new coronavirus cases in New York, and with luck the national peak may not be too far off. That would be welcome news when it comes. But it would be dead wrong to declare victory or assume that the worst is …
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CONTINUE READINGInslee v. De Blasio: Coronavirus Responses, Good and Bad
As it turns out, telling New Yorkers not to worry about the virus was a really bad idea.
The state of Washington seems to be a model of success in dealing with the coronavirus. What can we learn from that experience? And how did Washington’s approach differ from that of another hotspot with about the same population, New York City? Let’s begin by taking a look at how the situation developed in Washington. …
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CONTINUE READINGInterpreting Models of Coronavirus Spread
Models are crucial to making policy decisions during the epidemic, but you have to know how to use them.
This post works through an exercise in how to use and interpret models of disease spread. Here are the takeaways for policy analysis: You need to know about a model’s sensitivity. Particularly in settings where the specific numbers really matter, such as forecasting how many hospital beds will be needed, it’s important to take into …
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CONTINUE READINGUncertainty in the Age of Coronavirus
There’s a lot we don’t know at this point. How should we deal with that?
Knowledge about the coronavirus is limited but growing. In the meantime, how should we cope with this uncertainty? I can’t give you psychological advice, but I can say something about how to think about this uncertainty. How to make decisions under uncertainty is something we know a lot about from the environmental sphere. Uncertainty is …
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CONTINUE READINGIs a Pandemic a Major Disaster?
Cuomo has asked for major disaster relief. But there’s a serious legal hurdle to that.
Yesterday, I wrote about presidential powers in a pandemic. I mentioned the possibility of declaring the pandemic a major disaster under the Stafford Act. Today, we learned that Gov. Cuomo of New York has made such a request. [Note: two days after this was written, FEMA granted the request.] What does the law have to …
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CONTINUE READINGPresidential Power in a Pandemic
The President does have considerable power, but there are serious limitations.
Now that Trump has belatedly declared a national emergency, what powers does he have to respond to the coronavirus pandemic? There has been a lot of talk about this on the Internet, some of it off-base. it’s important to get the law straight. For instance, there’s been talk about whether Trump should impose a national …
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CONTINUE READINGWhat the Administration Failed to Learn from Past Disasters
There are some basic rules about how to respond to emergencies. They were ignored.
An epidemic and a hurricane require different responses. But the organizational challenge of confronting an emergency is a constant. Here are some basic rules the Trump Administration failed to heed. Ensure in advance that sufficient supplies will be quickly available. When Hurricane Katrina hit, the government did have supplies, but they were located hundreds …
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CONTINUE READINGThe Right Wing’s Views of Coronavirus and Climate Change
There’s a common theme: “nothing to worry about, folks.”
It’s interesting to see what conservative think tanks are saying about the coronavirus and compare it with their views on climate change. There are some common themes — both problems tend to get downplayed, along with any possible need for major government action. Like Trump himself, the conservative think tanks seem unable to process scientific …
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CONTINUE READINGLessons of the Little Ice Age
What can we learn from the climate disruptions of the previous millennium?
The Little Ice Age wasn’t actually an ice age, but it was a period of markedly colder temperatures that began in the 1200s and lasted into the mid-1800s, with the 1600s a particular low point. It was a time when London winter fairs were regularly held on the middle of a frozen Thames river, glaciers …
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CONTINUE READINGA Continent on Fire Ignores Climate Change
Conditions in Australia keep getting worse. The government offers platitudes.
Australia is remarkably exposed to climate change and remarkably unwilling to do much about it. Conditions keep getting worse. Yet climate policy in Australia has been treading water or backpedalling for years, as I discussed in an earlier post. Let’s start with the temperature. The Guardian reports that in the year up to July 2019, …
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