How Hot Will Things Get?
Identifying a realistic worst case scenario is complicated.
How hot will the world be in 2100? The answer partly depends on how much carbon we dump in the atmosphere between now and then. It also depends on how sensitive the climate system is to those emissions. Scientists have used 4.5 °C as the high end of the likely possibilities. That estimate derives from a climate scenario called RCP8.5. (RCP stands for Representation Concentration Pathway.) That scenario assumes little or no effort to control carbon emissions. It’s c...
CONTINUE READINGEurope Mulls its First Climate Law
What would it do in terms of emissions targets and likely actual mitigation?
The European Union is, if one treats it as a country, the world's third greatest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHGs). It has also been a leader in emissions reduction ("mitigation"), and its per capita emissions are merely 43% of the US's. The EU government is presently considering a major new climate law that will set the trajectory of its climate policy for the next thirty years. What would it do, both in terms of emissions targets and in likely actual mitigation? As...
CONTINUE READINGHeathrow’s Third Runway and Airport GHG Emissions
California's potential opportunity to lead through local action
Late last month, a UK court blocked a proposed new runway at London’s Heathrow Airport, ruling that the project conflicted with the national government’s commitment under the 2015 Paris Agreement. The court held that project planners improperly failed to assess the proposal’s consistency with the UK government’s ratified plan to help meet the Paris target of limiting temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Since the proposal would have added hundreds of tho...
CONTINUE READINGCalifornia’s New Housing Bill Seeks To End Single-Family Zoning
Sen. Wiener introduces SB 902 to increase suburban density & streamline transit-oriented housing
Sen. Scott Wiener is back trying to boost California housing production again, after his SB 50 legislation to upzone for apartments around transit died in the State Senate in January. This time, he's proposing a "lighter touch" approach, salvaging an SB 50 provision that would end single-family zoning across the state. Senate Bill 902 would authorize minimum residential zoning of duplexes in unincorporated county areas or cities under 10,000 residents. Triplexes would...
CONTINUE READINGWhat the Administration Failed to Learn from Past Disasters
There are some basic rules about how to respond to emergencies. They were ignored.
An epidemic and a hurricane require different responses. But the organizational challenge of confronting an emergency is a constant. Here are some basic rules the Trump Administration failed to heed. Ensure in advance that sufficient supplies will be quickly available. When Hurricane Katrina hit, the government did have supplies, but they were located hundreds of miles away. The government learned a lesson from that and prepositioned supplies before later h...
CONTINUE READINGCalifornia’s governance innovation for groundwater sustainability
by Anita Milman and Michael Kiparsky
For the past several years, California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act has been the talk, not only of the town and of the state, but also of the national and international groundwater and environmental policy community. What’s the big deal? SGMA fundamentally changes groundwater management in California – a big deal to be sure. Equally important, as we discuss in a recently published paper, is the broader conceptual significance of the SGMA experimen...
CONTINUE READINGThe Right Wing’s Views of Coronavirus and Climate Change
There’s a common theme: “nothing to worry about, folks.”
It's interesting to see what conservative think tanks are saying about the coronavirus and compare it with their views on climate change. There are some common themes -- both problems tend to get downplayed, along with any possible need for major government action. Like Trump himself, the conservative think tanks seem unable to process scientific evidence and prefer optimistic conjectures. A table at the end of this post gives the details. On the coronavirus, with...
CONTINUE READINGPublic Lands Watch: Revisions to NEPA regulations
Trump Administration proposes drastic revisions to regulations that implement bedrock environmental law
The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) is one of the most important statutes for public lands management in the United States, even though it actually is not specific to public lands. NEPA requires federal agencies to analyze and publicly disclose the significant environmental impacts of proposed agency actions, consider alternatives to those proposals, and seek and respond to public comment on the analysis of impacts and consider alternatives. NEPA has been contro...
CONTINUE READINGAn Easy, No-Fuss, Climate Fix for that Big First Day in Office
No, not rejoining the Paris Agreement, though that’s a good idea too. Something else.
This is kind of like one of those recipe things you see: putting a gourmet meal on the table in five minutes. But it’s more like: the one ingredient that will make all your recipes come out better. More seriously, what I’m about to propose is very conventional, easily integrated into agency procedures, and a big boost for climate policy. So here’s this simple trick to improve your agency cookouts: fix the social cost of carbon. The social cost of carbon is...
CONTINUE READINGUnderstanding wastewater utility views on innovation and regulation
by Luke Sherman, Alida Cantor, Anita Milman, and Michael Kiparsky
The same underlying technology has been used in the municipal wastewater sector for 100 years. New technologies that treat effluent more efficiently and effectively exist, yet deployment of those technologies has been slow. The limited adoption of new technologies in the wastewater sector raises questions about how to encourage innovation. Popular narratives around innovation sometimes focus on an individual innovator, an Elon Musk-ian figure with the ability to envis...
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