Are the Coronavirus Models Too Pessimistic?
Unfortunately, if anything, reality has often turned out somewhat worse than predicted.
The White House keeps thinking that the major coronavirus models are too pessimistic and that things will turn out better than they predict. The Administration is wrong to downplay the models' forecasts. Rather than being too pessimistic, models have frequently erred in the direction of optimism. Despite continuing uncertainties, there's no reason to discount their prediction downward. Fivethirtyeight.org has a nifty feature where you can check out what some leading...
CONTINUE READINGThe Looming Liability of Orphaned Oil Wells
Abandoned wells pose a rising risk to the state as the industry struggles
Recent reports are highlighting a looming environmental threat from the ongoing struggles of the oil and gas industry, which derive from a combination of the demand impacts of the covid-19 pandemic and long-running price wars and financing challenges. As more operators face bankruptcy, states including California may face a boom in “orphaned wells”: oil and gas wells that are abandoned by the operator without sufficient funds reserved to pay for complete environmenta...
CONTINUE READINGThe Coronavirus and the Commerce Clause
Could Congress mandate CORVID-19 vaccinations? Not if you take some Supreme Court opinions seriously.
If we get a vaccine against a national epidemic, could Congress pass a law requiring everyone to get vaccinated? That very question was asked during the Supreme Court argument in the 2012 constitutional challenge to Obamacare’s individual mandate. The lawyer challenging Obamacare said “no, Congress couldn’t do that.” What’s shocking is that this may have been the correct answer. Conservatives on the Supreme Court have curtailed Congress's ability to le...
CONTINUE READINGHow to Jump Start the Economy? Regulate
Smart Regulation Can Overcome The "Paradox of Thrift"
Once we begin to dig ourselves out from the COVID-19 pandemic, we will need to think seriously about how the rebuild the economy. And that should scare environmentalists. Expect a whole series of pushes from the usual suspects about we “can’t afford” environmental protection when the nation is in depression. That is precisely wrong. Suppose that we get to the point when COVID-19 is no longer a significant danger: we have post-infection treatments, or a va...
CONTINUE READINGResuscitating Obama’s Environmental Legacy
Trump has had a single-minded focus on eliminating any traces of Obama's presidency. But it's not too late to turn the tide.
We've now had nearly four years of Trump's all-out war on environmental protection. Trump has single-mindedly tried to wipe out every trace of Obama's legacy. It's time to see what’s left of Obama’s achievements. And what could a new President do to revive his legacy? In a Legal Planet post a week before the last Presidential election, I compiled a list of Obama’s environmental achievements. I added, “We can only hope that next Tuesday’s election doesn...
CONTINUE READINGCoastal Beaches, Public Access & the Pandemic
Important Legal & Policy Considerations in Closing Beaches to Protect Public Health
As part of America's steadily growing restiveness over state and local shelter-in-place directives, the issue of government-mandated public beach closures has recently emerged as a particularly contentious issue. It's especially prominent now, given that many coastal states are experiencing their first heat waves of 2020. Many Americans are increasingly weary of and angry over public health-based mandates to stay home and away from popular recreational areas, in...
CONTINUE READINGThe World Leader Who is Far Worse Than Trump
Take everything Trump did wrong about the virus. Then square it. That’s Bolsonaro.
Yes, Trump made huge mistakes in the coronavirus outbreak. But no, he’s not the worst world leader in this respect. That prize currently goes to Brazil’s Jair Bolsonaro. Like Trump, he’s a rightwing populist leader. He’s even been called “the Trump of the Tropics.” But he’s far more unmoored. When asked about Brazil's record number of deaths on Tuesday, he shrugged in reply, "So what? I'm sorry. What do you want to do?" Not that Trump has been a pa...
CONTINUE READINGConservatives versus Lockdowns
Conservatives versus Lockdowns
Spurred on by conservative groups, protesters are demanding that their states go back to business as usual. This sentiment isn’t limited to the kinds of hotheads who insist on congregating in public during an epidemic, or even to conservatives like Betsy DeVos who help to fund these groups and promote their protests. It also includes other, more sober, conservative commentators. It’s important to understand the reasons for this pushback, which are not unlike th...
CONTINUE READINGNegative Emissions: The Next Bright Shiny Object in Greenhouse-Gas Emissions Reductions
In ongoing debate over how to slow and stop climate change, the past year or so has seen a large shift of attention and interest toward technological options to remove CO2 from the atmosphere after it is emitted – options generally lumped under the headings “Carbon dioxide removal” (CDR) or “negative emissions technologies” (NETs). These terms cover a highly diverse collection of a dozen-odd removal approaches, which differ both in the mechanism by which the...
CONTINUE READINGRoadmap For California To Phase Out Oil & Gas Production
New CLEE report released today with legal options for state policy makers & free May 12th webinar
California is the seventh-largest oil producing state in the country, with a fossil fuel industry that is responsible for billions of dollars in state and local revenue and other economic activity each year. Yet continued oil and gas production contrasts with the state’s aggressive climate mitigation policies, while creating significant air and water pollution, particularly for disadvantaged communities in areas where much of the state’s drilling occurs. As a resu...
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