Bayesian analysis

The Reverend Bayes Visits Russia

In a post last week,  I discussed how Bayesian analysis could help with determining whether certain events are due to climate change — and by the same token, how events can help reinforce the evidence for climate change. The Russian heat wave is a case in point.  As the Economist explains: According to Geert Jan …


Tell Your Reverend To Go Jump In The Lake

Dan, your post is thoroughly persuasive to me, but I’m not sure that it would persuade many climate skeptics.  There are two reasons for this: 1)  You assume that there is at least a 50/50 chance of climate change occurring.  That is a highly conservative assumption — except for climate skeptics.  Most climate skeptics are …


The Reverend Bayes Visits Lake Mead

Land Letter reports that Lake Mead has continued to recede in the face of an 11-year drought, as we are apparently heading into a La Nina period that will probably continue the drought.  This will put some pressure on adaptation measures, particular in terms of Las Vegas: For Las Vegas, which draws 90 percent of …