energy forecasts
“If Present Trends Continue….”
To paraphrase Socrates, “the unexplained projection is not worth giving.”
You often see forecasts like this: “If present trends continue, electric vehicles will be X% of the auto fleet by 2035.” But this doesn’t mean much without explanation: what “trends” and “continued” in what way? The Energy Information Agency is a major culprit in that respect — they provide lots of projections but don’t unpack …
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CONTINUE READINGEnergy Forecasts, Accuracy and Climate Change
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) provides very important forecasts of energy prices, consumption, efficiency and so forth. The EIA produces short, long term and annual outlooks that are widely regarded as among the best and most independent forecasts of the state of the nation’s energy use. The agency even has statutory authority to operate …
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CONTINUE READINGFuture Energy Scenarios
In a recent post, I discussed projections of future oil prices. There are big uncertainties, which obviously pose challenges for major oil companies among others. The approach that Shell takes to such uncertainties is instructive. Shell has a long history of using scenarios as a planning tool. An important recent example is its analysis of …
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