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uncertainty

Scenarios

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We live in an uncertain world. Scenario planning can help.

When Shell Oil produced a sophisticated scenario of the path to a carbon neutral world in 2070, a lot people took notice. Shell concluded that the “relevant transformations in the energy and natural systems require concurrent climate policy action and the deployment of disruptive new technologies at mass scale within government policy environments that strongly …

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“You’re Just Not My Type (of error)”

Most people find statistics off-putting — who wants to look at a bunch of numbers? And Statistics courses, which are required for students in many majors, are usually viewed as a painful box to check. But when you put aside the numbers and the technicalities, statisticians also have some simple yet powerful concepts. One of …

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Seismic Uncertainty

What happened last March 11 wasn’t supposed to be possible. The seismic hazard maps didn’t entertain the idea of a 9.0 magnitude earthquake off the Tohoku coast of Japan. But the Earth paid no heed to scientific orthodoxy. A massive slab of the planet’s crust lurched 180 feet to the east. It rose about 15 …

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The story of the Price-Anderson Act: how Congress made nuclear power financially viable in the U.S. by eliminating accountability for risk

Ever wonder how nuclear power plants have been able to get financial backing in the U.S. despite the huge, and largely uncertain, potential risks they pose? Or why there are nuclear plants within a few hours’ drive of major population centers such as Los Angeles and New York? Or who will pay the costs that …

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The Truly Conservative View of Climate Policy

A nice column in the Washington Post about why conservatives should change their views about climate policy: When faced with uncertainty and the possibility of costly outcomes, smart businessmen buy insurance, reduce their downside exposure and protect their assets… And when military planners assess an enemy, they get ready for a worst-case encounter. When it …

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Should We Run Some Controlled Climate Change Experiments?

Controlled experiments in general are the best way of doing science, but we haven’t been able to take advantage of that in science research. Considering the importance of the climate change issue, it might be worth taking a serious look at this possibility, even if it does seem a little outside the box.

Gambling on Climate Change

Paul Krugman had a great article about climate change in the NY Times magazine on Sunday. It provides a really useful primer on the economics of climate change. In particular, Krugman emphasizes that uncertainty is a reason for action, not a reason to to allow unchecked global warming: We’re uncertain about the magnitude of climate …

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Why You Should Worry About Climate Change Even If You Don’t Think It Is Going To Happen

Even if you think that carbon emissions won’t cause uncertainty, you should think seriously about hedging that bet.

New GAO Report on Adaptation

GAO has released an important report on adaptation. This is a subject that is just beginning to get the attention it deserves. Key findings: The challenges faced by federal, state, and local officials in their efforts to adapt fell into three categories, based on GAO’s analysis of questionnaire results, site visits, and available studies. First, …

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Confronting Uncertainty Under NEPA

Quantifying risks with confidence is often difficult. For the past thirty years, agencies and courts have struggled with the treatment of uncertainty in environmental impact statements. This problem is all the more important today. Climate change will require innovative solutions – new energy technologies, new adaptation strategies. These innovations will inevitably pose risks, often in …

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A New Era for Protecting Public Lands

The Bureau of Land Management has always prioritized extraction activities. Now the agency has announced a rule that could elevate conservation.

Don’t Count Your Judicial Vultures Before They Hatch

The conservative Supreme Court majority may turn out as bad as we fear. Or maybe not.

Filling in the Picture: The Latest From Kennedy about Climate

Here’s what Kennedy says about his campaign, its effect on the race, and climate change.

Five Myths and Half-Truths About California Cap and Trade

California has spent years fine-tuning its trading system, with results that aren’t always easy to gauge.

U.S. Supreme Court Revisits, Tightens Regulatory Takings Limits on Land Use Regulation

California Homeowner’s Takings Challenge to County’s Traffic Impact Fee Heads Back to State Court

California Wins Major Clean Air Act/Climate Change Case in D.C. Circuit

U.S. Court of Appeals Rejects Red States’ Challenge to California’s CAA “Waiver Authority”

Shanahan, Kennedy and Climate Change: Unanswered Questions

It’s clear that RFK Jr.’s running mate has good intentions and an interest in climate issues. But not much is clear beyond that.

Power of the People: Environmental Advocacy in China

Several of China’s most prominent environmental advocates will join a keynote talk at UCLA Law on the role of civil society in addressing China’s global environmental impacts.

Not All Community Benefits Are Created Equal

Technical Assistance for Underserved, Environmental Justice, and Tribal Communities Will Be Key to Ensuring Meaningful California Offshore Wind CBAs

Climate Change and Nigeria

A population explosion. Sluggish economy. Weak governance. Serious climate impacts. What could possibly go wrong?

California Wins Major Clean Air Act/Climate Change Case in D.C. Circuit

U.S. Court of Appeals Rejects Red States’ Challenge to California’s CAA “Waiver Authority”

Florida is a Climate-Denying Hellscape

Florida lawmakers want to erase climate change from their laws and ban local heat protection ordinances ahead of what could be another summer of record-breaking heat.

The New EPA Car Rule Doesn’t Violate the Major Questions Doctrine

They both relate to climate, but West Virginia v. EPA involved a very different regulation raising very different issues.

Critical Insights on the Mineral Boom: Part III

On the rise of resource nationalism and building an equitable supply chain: Insights from the Emmett Institute’s “Powering the Future” symposium.

Will the NEPA Amendments Speed Up Permitting?

Probably not much. If at all.

Election 2024: The Current Outlook

The White House and the House are still up for grabs; Republicans are favored in the Senate.

A Word on Congestion Pricing

Time for local leaders to restart the discussion

The ‘Year of Climate’ in International Courts

Guest contributor Rebecca Hamilton previews several opinions that touch on the question of the international legal obligations of States in light of the climate emergency.

Ranking the Candidates’ Focus on Energy & Climate

Some campaign websites mention these issues only in passing. Others went into more detail.

No, EVs are Not Worse for the Planet

There’s an electric car culture war raging. It doesn’t hurt to say obvious things, like that electric cars reduce driving costs and pollute far less than gas-powered cars.

uncertainty

We live in an uncertain world. Scenario planning can help.

TRENDING

The Bureau of Land Management has always prioritized extraction activities. Now the agency has announced a rule that could elevate conservation.

The conservative Supreme Court majority may turn out as bad as we fear. Or maybe not.

Here’s what Kennedy says about his campaign, its effect on the race, and climate change.

California has spent years fine-tuning its trading system, with results that aren’t always easy to gauge.

California Homeowner’s Takings Challenge to County’s Traffic Impact Fee Heads Back to State Court

U.S. Court of Appeals Rejects Red States’ Challenge to California’s CAA “Waiver Authority”

It’s clear that RFK Jr.’s running mate has good intentions and an interest in climate issues. But not much is clear beyond that.

Several of China’s most prominent environmental advocates will join a keynote talk at UCLA Law on the role of civil society in addressing China’s global environmental impacts.

Technical Assistance for Underserved, Environmental Justice, and Tribal Communities Will Be Key to Ensuring Meaningful California Offshore Wind CBAs

A population explosion. Sluggish economy. Weak governance. Serious climate impacts. What could possibly go wrong?

U.S. Court of Appeals Rejects Red States’ Challenge to California’s CAA “Waiver Authority”

Florida lawmakers want to erase climate change from their laws and ban local heat protection ordinances ahead of what could be another summer of record-breaking heat.

They both relate to climate, but West Virginia v. EPA involved a very different regulation raising very different issues.

On the rise of resource nationalism and building an equitable supply chain: Insights from the Emmett Institute’s “Powering the Future” symposium.

Probably not much. If at all.

The White House and the House are still up for grabs; Republicans are favored in the Senate.

Time for local leaders to restart the discussion

Guest contributor Rebecca Hamilton previews several opinions that touch on the question of the international legal obligations of States in light of the climate emergency.

Some campaign websites mention these issues only in passing. Others went into more detail.

There’s an electric car culture war raging. It doesn’t hurt to say obvious things, like that electric cars reduce driving costs and pollute far less than gas-powered cars.