2018 Senate races

Key Senate Races: Retrospective

The toss-up races came out 50/50, with the pro-environmental candidates winning 4 out of 8 elections.

In a post last March, I explained the environmental stakes in eight toss-up Senate races. We now know how those races came out.  Vindicating the laws of probability, the results of the toss-ups were evenly divided between the two parties. In terms of the overall election picture, I said: “The odds are that the Republicans …


The 2018 Elections: What’s the Upshot?

Overall, some very positive developments in terms of energy and environmental policy.

What happened on Tuesday? And what does it mean for the environment>? Going into Tuesday’s voting, there were three possible scenarios about the outcome: The Least Favorable Scenario for Environmental Regulation. In this scenario, the Republicans would hang on to control of the House by a smaller margin than today, and they gain several seats …


Election Scenarios

Here are three ways things could play out from now to 2020.

We should know within the next 48 hours who will control the House and Senate, though if races are very tight it might take longer. I don’t want to make election predictions — that’s Nate Silver’s job, not mine. But I do want to sketch out some scenarios for the next two years, depending on …


Battle for the Senate: The Lone Star State

Is Texas in play? The environmental stakes are high.

Texas is a late addition to my list of key Senate races. It’s still not clear how genuinely Texas is in play, but it’s surprising that we’re even asking the question. Here’s what we know about the candidates and the environment. Ted Cruz (R). Cruz managed to get a 0% score from the League of Conservation …


High-Stakes Races in Florida

A Senate seat and the Governor’s Mansion are both in play.

Florida has not one but two races this year with national significance.  One is the Senate race.  The other is the Governor’s race. We all know why Senate races matter, especially this year when the Senate is so closely divided. A  gubernatorial race, in contrast, normally would be considered mostly a local matter. But there …


Battle for the Senate: Montana and North Dakota

These two coal-producing states may determine the balance of power in 2019.

Montana and North Dakota are two must-win states for the Democrats. Both states went heavily for Trump. The environmental stakes are large. Montana: Tester v. Rosendale. The incumbent is Jon Tester (D), with an 86% lifetime League of Conservation Voters (LCV) score. Montana gets 54% of its power from coal and 40% from renewables (33% …


Battle for the Senate: Missouri and Indiana

Two Democratic moderates faces staunch conservative challengers in these toss-up races.

In the middle of the country, these two Senate races pit Democratic incumbents against strong Republican challengers in what promise to be very close races. Democrats must hold onto these seats to have any chance at all of winning control. If they lose both seats, the GOP will solidify its majority, giving Mitch McConnell more …


Battle for the Senate: Tennessee & West Virginia

These two battleground states will help determine the balance of power in the Senate

These two states are from the upper South. Both voted for Trump. But they’re very different in other ways. West Virginia is another must-hold state for the Democrats, while in Tennessee Bob Corker’s resignation gives them a possible pick-up opportunity. Tennessee:  Bredesen v.  Blackburn. Tennessee has unexpectedly turned out to be in play, due to …