Why I Was Wrong About Methane

I didn’t think cutting methane was a high priority. Now I do. Here’s why.

I didn’t use to think that eliminating methane emissions should be a priority. True, methane is a potent greenhouse gas. But it’s also a short-lived one, which only stays in the atmosphere for twenty years or so. In contrast, CO2 emissions cause warming for 2-3 centuries or more. So methane emissions seemed to be something that could be addressed at any point we got around to them. I’ve rethought that conclusion, however for a combination of policy and political economy reasons.

On the policy side, cutting methane would have immediate benefits that aren’t limited to reducing warming. Because methane contributes to ozone pollution, emissions cause immediate health effects as well as warming effects.  According to the U.N., “a 45 per cent reduction would prevent 260 000 premature deaths, 775 000 asthma-related hospital visits, 73 billion hours of lost labour from extreme heat, and 25 million tonnes of crop losses annually.”.

In addition, one reason to worry about methane is that it accelerates warming, even if the world would have eventually gotten to the same temperature due to CO2 emissions. The pace of warming matters, not just the extent of warming. A pulse of methane today may not matter in a century, but it does mean that warming over the next few decades will happen faster. Slower warming gives the world less time to adopt adaptation measures like strengthening flood defenses, making crops more drought resistance, taking precautions against heat waves. . Before we can take those steps, institutions and public attitudes will themselves have to adapt to the realities of climate change.   If we can slow warming a bit, even if we end up in the same place ultimately due to carbon emissions, that gives us more time to prepare for what’s coming down the road.

Also on the policy side, even if methane only stays in the atmosphere for a limited period, some of the effects of Its effects may last longer. That warming could trigger other greenhouse gas emissions. For instance, methane-induced warming could increase the number of wildfires. The carbon from those wildfires could stay in the atmosphere a long time, causing additional warming. Moreover, some of the direct impacts of the temporary warming may not be reversible. If a pulse of warming causes a species extinction, that species will still be gone after the pulse ends.

Straddling the line between policy and politics, addressing methane also has some beneficial economic and political effects.  The Biden Administration is well aware of that.  Part of the Biden program calls for employing people in coal country and the oil patch to cap old wells and eliminate pipeline leaks. This program can cushion the economic impact of the transition to clean energy. Doing so makes sense as a policy matter. It also makes sense as a political matter, because the people who live in those areas tend to strongly oppose climate action. Giving them a stake in climate policy is a smart move.

More purely on the political economy side, cutting methane emissions provides a quick, cheap win for climate action. Many of the steps needed to cut emissions have low or even negative cost (meaning that they actually save money). The decline in atmospheric concentrations of methane is immediate, and the short-term cooling caused by cutting emissions is also observable. As Eric Biber is pointed out, reducing CO2 emissions has the political disadvantage that the beneficial effects don’t show up for several decades. Cutting methane is kind of a “gateway drug” for climate action: it’s cheap and gives immediate gratification.

All of these factors persuade me that cutting methane should be a priority. It doesn’t really compete with the bigger project of cutting CO2, and there are plenty of benefits to moving quickly. Much of the required action is also low cost. So let’s grab that low-hanging fruit.

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Reader Comments

3 Replies to “Why I Was Wrong About Methane”

  1. Dan, the biggest question remains:
    WHY DID WE IGNORE “350 or Bust” ever since we were warned in the 20th century?
    Here are the CONSEQUENCES of that failure today, that are OUT OF CONTROL:
    Bloomberg Green
    https://www.bloomberg.com/green
    Watches, Warnings or Advisories for California
    https://alerts.weather.gov/cap/ca.php?x=1
    Abnormal temperatures are baking the Western US in triple digits. These heat waves could become the new normal.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/abnormal-temperatures-are-baking-the-western-us-in-triple-digits-these-heat-waves-could-become-the-new-normal/ar-AAL7Xb7?ocid=DE_20210617_ENUS__1
    TODAY, AN EVEN BIGGER QUESTION BY FAR IS:
    Why do intellectuals/academics continue to fail to inform, educate and motivate us to fight for future quality of life?

  2. Experts knew better. They have called for eliminating methane emissions including leaks for decades but MACT limits were blocked by the fossil fuel industry by a deluge of lobbying at EPA and the White House. Congress hbeen as well aware of this and could have easily mandated MACT regulations 20 years ago. Industry and EPA has known for decades that Methane is a very potent greenhouse gas, averaged as 25 times that of CO2 by the IPCC.

  3. Correction of sorts … If CO2 emissions and emissions of gases like CH4 which decompose into CO2 were to be suddenly stopped, say, after we reach 800 ppmv CO2, half or 400 ppmv would be drawn down by soils and oceans over 200-500 years, but the other 400 ppmv would remain in atmosphere contributing to warming for thousands of years, perhaps even 10,000. See https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-008-9413-1 and https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/22/10/2008jcli2554.1.xml

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About Dan

Dan Farber has written and taught on environmental and constitutional law as well as about contracts, jurisprudence and legislation. Currently at Berkeley Law, he has al…

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