Election 2024: The Current Outlook

The White House and the House are still up for grabs; Republicans are favored in the Senate.

Last November, it appeared that the Democrats had a small edge in terms of electoral votes. In congressional races, however, the Republicans had the edge in the Senate and perhaps the House. Since then, the electoral vote situation has become foggier, gerrymandering in North Carolina has given the Republicans a bit more of an advantage in the House, and the Senate has become an even tougher battle for the Democrats.

As I said in November, not being a political expert, I’m relying on two respected political website, Sabato and Cook . Here are the reasons for the shifts since then:

1. The Senate has become tougher with Joe Manchin’s decision not to run again for this Senate seat, which makes a GOP flip of that state certain. To hold the Senate, Democrats need to win every toss-up race and win the White House so they can take advantage of the Vice President’s tie-breaking vote.
2. The presidential race will turn on the toss-up states. The reason things are a little iffier now is that Cook (but not Sabato) has moved Michigan and Pennsylvania into the toss-up group, from being “lean Democratic.”  Kennedy’s candidacy is a wildcard but could favor Trump in in a very tight race.  This seems uncertain, however — polls show him drawing a percent or two away from Biden in key states, but they also show he is more popular with Republicans than Democrats.
3. Democrats now need to win two-thirds of the toss-up races to flip the House. You can blame the Supreme Court for giving states free rein to engage in extreme political gerrymandering.

There are still a lot of unknowns in terms of the presidency and the House. The improving economy may boost the Democrats, as may the many fumbles of the current GOP majority in the House. Trump’s legal woes might catch up with him politically. Or any number of other things might happen.  Whatever happens, the effect of the outcome on environmental protection will be profound since they have diametrically opposite views on climate change and clean energy.

In other words, to quote Bob Dylan: “The wheel’s still in spin, and there’s no telling who that it’s naming.”  And to quote another verse, “The battle outside ragin′/Will soon shake your windows and rattle your walls/ For the times, they are a-changin′.”

In November, we’ll see in which direction they’re changing.

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