2026 Election
The 2026 Election and the Environment
Trump will still be able to take a lot of anti-environmental actions. But not as many as today.
I published a post a week ago about prospects for the upcoming 2026 elections. I didn’t say much, however, about why the results will matter for the environment. No matter what happens electorally, Trump will still be in the White House and able to use executive powers to favor fossil fuels and bulldoze environmental protections. Nevertheless, the elections could still make a real difference in environmental terms. Even just taking the House would matter, but there are additional potential environmental gains if there are power shifts in the Senate or governorships.
The best way to understand the shifts is probably to look at what Trump has been able to do with the support of Congress and then consider how the situation would shift if Democrats take one or both Houses.
The 2026 Election: Six Months to Go
Here’s what things look like now, but a lot could change.
Six months is a long time in politics, especially in the Trump era. What we can say at this point is that, compared with last November, the landscape has shifted toward the Democrats. They would now be favored to win the House, although that’s not a certainty. Republicans still clearly have edge in winning the Senate, but it’s a smaller edge than it was six months ago. Control of the House would allow Democrats to block further anti-environmental legislation, open investigations into Trump’s rollbacks, and potentially bargain for some pro-environmental provisions. Control of the Senate, while less likely, would also allow them to block appointments of extremist anti-environmentalist judges and officials.
CONTINUE READINGBending Under Pressure
Every now and then, the Trump Administration shows signs of reluctantly giving in to reality.
The Trump Administration’s basic stance has been to pursue ideological purity all costs, beginning with the “shock and awe” campaign of the first year. Don’t expect miracles, but there are at least a few signs that the Administration is tempering that strategy. It’s a bit comforting to see indications that reality is slowly sinking in. It’s also evidence that resistance to Trump policies isn’t futile.
Any trend toward saner policies is likely to be very limited. For instance, Trump and his supporters are too invested in climate denial to ever admit that climate change is a serious problem. The best we might hope for is that they ease up just a little on their war against clean energy. There are at least some hints that this may be starting to happen.
CONTINUE READINGMaintaining California’s Environmental Leadership
California’s 2026 Gubernatorial Race
California will elect a new governor in 2026. The primary is June 2 and the top two candidates will face off on November 3. If you are in California, make sure you are registered to vote! This election comes as a pivotal time for California’s environmental leadership. California’s next governor must be ready to step …
Continue reading “Maintaining California’s Environmental Leadership”
CONTINUE READINGThe 2026 Election: Through a Glass, Darkly
Here’s what things look like now, but a lot could change.
We’re now one year from Election Day. Because of polarization, environmental policy is closely tied to political party. With that in mind, I’ve been providing election information for about the past ten years. I don’t claim any expertise. My predictions are based on two well-established political websites, Cook and Sabato. Given all that’s happening, the situation will surely shift in the next year, but here’s what things look like right now. Obviously, it’s early days. The Democrats will need to get some luster back on their brand and see some tarnishing of Trump’s if they’re to prevail.
CONTINUE READINGJoin Our Mailing List
Climate policy is changing rapidly. Stay in the loop with expert analysis via email Monday - Friday.
