Trump Tried to Kill Renewables. He Failed.

Despite assaults by Trump and his Congress, renewables are still growing.

Trump has done everything within his power to bless the US with more air pollution and carbon emissions from fossil fuels. Congress did its part, rolling back billions in spending and set accelerated phaseouts for tax credits.  Yet renewable energy hasn’t died. It hasn’t even slowed down all that much.

Here are the numbers. Solar alone accounted for almost three-fourths of new generation capacity in Trump’s first ten months, and wind added another 13%, for 87% total.  And according to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission in October:

• Coal generating capacity went down by 40 megawatts (MW).
• Natural gas generating capacity went up by 3896 MW.
• Wind generating capacity went up by 4746 MW.
• Solar capacity went up 22,457 MW.

You may be thinking, “Yes, but those were projects underway before all the rollbacks. What about the future?”

The immediate future (into 2027) continues to look good.  There are complications, but the basic reason for optimism is that solar projects will continue to receive tax credits if they begin construction by this July and go into service by the end of 2031. Even if they don’t begin construction until later, they can still get the credits if they go into service by the end of 2027. Naturally there’s a rush to get under the wire.

Two other factors come into play.  One is political. Trump’s presidency lasts only a year past 2027. Investments will begin to be influenced by expectations regarding the 2028 elections.  Even before that, if Democrats retake the House, they may start pressing for tax credit extensions.

The other factor relates to another important advantage of renewables: speed.  Solar can be added to the grid very quickl. Wind projects are slower but still a lot faster than building new natural gas generation.  There’s a backlog at this point for natural gas plants because of supply chain snarls, including waits of up to seven years for turbines.  (Costs have also gone as high as $2400 per kilowatt of capacity, about twice the cost of utility-scale solar). Nuclear power plants are going to take even longer, even with a lot of streamlining.  Data centers will cause surging power demand well before then. We may also see a big increase in geothermal (which still has a tax credit).

All things considered, then, renewable energy is doing OK, still alive and kicking despite rumors to the contrary.  The one exception is offshore wind, which had still been trying to establish solid foothold in the U.S. before Trump came in. For wind, solar, and geothermal, the next three years won’t be pretty, but there’s good reason to think they won’t be too bad.

Big Beautiful Bill, data centers, Energy, Inflation Reduction Act, natural gas, renewable energy, solar power, Trump Administration, wind power